Trilliant Health Deploys Predictive Analytics to Forecast Local Health Care Demand


Health systems have come under enormous revenue pressure since the COVID-19 pandemic with disruptions to preventive and elective procedures. As the pandemic continues to disrupt the healthcare economy, providers often fly blindly in the face of changing market dynamics, creating challenges when investing for future growth.

Healthcare analytics company Trilliant Health has developed a new predictive analytics tool that enables strategic teams to see 10 years of the healthcare market with insights down to the local market level.

The goal is to help providers “see around the corner” in a post-COVID-19 health economy with ever-changing market dynamics, company executives said.

Historically, the healthcare industry has developed generic strategic plans assuming that the national increase in the disease burden is predictive of future demand in local markets. Trilliant Health is applying advanced machine learning technology to its large datasets to provide customers with a more forward-looking perspective that forecasts demand locally, executives said.

“It is this forward-looking view that enables health systems to plan a scenario and make better investments to care for patients in the community,” said Jason Nardella, senior vice president of predictive analytics at Trilliant Health, at Fierce Healthcare.

Trilliant works with over 75 of America’s top healthcare systems encompassing over 1,500 hospitals. The Nashville, Tennessee-based company synthesizes a variety of proprietary and third-party data sets to power its data analysis tools.

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The demand forecast analysis platform is designed to help providers allocate resources and understand how to create growth strategies, according to company executives.

“We have more entrants into the healthcare market with more capital constraints and we know how expensive it is to run these healthcare systems. Healthcare systems need to start looking ahead and understanding not only one possible scenario in the future, but many possible scenarios in the future, ”said Nardella, who previously worked as a business development manager at Steward. Health Care.

“Basically, it’s about better understanding who is in their market, not only at the hospital and supplier level, but also at the consumer level. What drives health care are consumers. You need to understand what kind of care they need to best set up your operations and facilities to care for these patients. Hospital space, doctors and nurses are far too expensive to use a strategy of “just building everything and hoping they come”, “he said.

Developed over the past three years, the company’s demand forecast provides a 10-year view of the healthcare market based on a variety of claims, demographics and psychographics. The app provides healthcare system strategy teams with an in-depth understanding of the relationship between consumer demand in a local market and the supply of healthcare providers available to meet that demand.

“Healthcare systems need to be able to trust that the solution is built around the uniqueness of their market, and not modeled from a national perspective. An effective solution should not restrict discovery to predefined views, but should rather allow its user to build scenarios, based on the realities of the local market. More importantly, a solution must fit into the user’s process, not the other way around, ”Nardella said.

Trilliant designed the predictive analytics platform to allow providers to explore specific service lines and procedures related to their strategic planning initiatives, giving them the ability to understand which consumers are driving growth based on gender, age, location and caregiving behavior (incidence rate). This information allows strategic teams to better understand, target and quantify the expected impact on their system, Nardella said.

The analysis also offers a range of scenarios using confidence intervals so that vendors can measure different outcomes and factor their comfort level or risk aversion into a particular strategic initiative, depending on the company. The app comes with a ‘build your own’ capability, enabling personalized forecast visualizations and real-time data outputs.

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Trilliant’s all-payers dataset combines commercial, Medicare Advantage, traditional Medicare and Medicaid claims, representing approximately 70 billion medical claims representing more than 300 million US patients at an anonymized level.

The company recently released an in-depth report on supply and demand issues in the U.S. healthcare system. This report found that future demand for health services will be relatively stable to declining, with little or no effect from the COVID-19 pandemic, and contradicts the widespread belief that demand for health services in the nationwide is on the rise.

This report also found that telehealth use was starting to decline, declining by up to 37% from pandemic peaks in some states.

Founded in 2017, Trilliant Health is backed by investors Primus Capita, Bon Secours Mercy Health, Providence Ventures, Martin Ventures, Noro-Moseley Partners and Nashville Capital Network.

Trilliant Health aims to use its data sets and analytics technology to build on its predictive analytics capabilities, Nardella said.

“We’re going to start bringing these disparate assets around the consumer and around the markets, and start doing a similarity analysis to understand these different segments and how they relate to each other. These index scores and this understanding of what which is similar and what is not similar in the market in different dimensions will help us put together something that we are working on, namely a recommender system. We can start making recommendations based on the market of a system health, ”he said.

The aim is to help health systems better invest their resources on the basis of more accurate forecasts of health care demand, he said.

“On the financial side, having worked in a hospital, I understand that you have $ 500 million in capital and $ 3 billion in claims. I understand how limited these resources are and how important it is to do it right. things, ”he said. .

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